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Tsys Futures Edges Higher As Geopol Risks Increase, PPI Later

US TSYS
  • Tsys futures were higher on Monday, in what was a thin summer market. Growing tensions in the middle east supported tsys after headlines that Israel in on full alert ahead of an expected attack from Iran/Hamas, while fighting looks to have picked up in Eastern Europe after Ukraine took control of over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory in a counter-offensive that kicked off over the weekend.
  • Tsys futures were steady heading into the US session before the move higher occurred, TUU4 is back testing Friday's highs, closing +0-02¼ at 103-08⅜, while TYU4 is testing pre jobless claims levels and closed +0-09 at 113-07+, although still trades well below initial resistance of 114-03 (Aug 3 highs).
  • The cash treasury curve steepened overnight yields were 1-5bps lower, there was better buying through the 3-7yr tenors with the 2yr at -3.6bps at 4.017%, the 5yr -5bps at 3.746% while the 10yr was -3.6bps at 3.904%.
  • Limited data overnight with just NY Fed inflation expectations, which were unchanged for 1Y and 5Y ahead measures (1Y unchanged on a rounded basis at 3.0% but unrounded at 2.97% after 3.02%, 5Y at 2.8%).
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end looks marginally higher vs. early morning levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -39.8bp (-38.1bp), Nov'24 cumulative -70.4bp (-69.7bp), Dec'24 -101.8bp (-100.6bp).
  • Today, PPI data while Richmond Fed Bostic will discuss his economic outlook.
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