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Tsys Futures Erase Gains To Trade Lower, Busy Day Of Fed Speakers

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures opened lower this morning before testing the overnight highs, tsys has since pared gains to trade inline with opening levels the 10Y contract is down (- 03) to 109-00 from NY closing prices, we still sit comfortably above initial support at 108-15+ (20-day EMA), while the 2Y contract down (- 01) at 101-23.125.
  • Earlier, a TU-FV-UXY Fly block traded, and a likely block seller of 5Y.
  • Looking across local rate markets; ACGBs & NZGBs yields are 1-3bps lower, curves have bull-steepened, while JGBs have twist-flattened with yields now flat to 2bps higher.
  • Cash Treasury curve is little changed today the 2Y in +0.2bp at 4.817%, 10Y -0.4bp to 4.449%.
  • FED BRIEF (MNI): Fed's Daly Sees No Need To 'Push Economy Down' - (See link)
  • Projected rate cut pricing look steady vs. post-claims: June 2024 at -10.0% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.302%, July'24 at -28% w/ cumulative at -9.5bp at 5.233%, Sep'24 cumulative -22bp, Nov'24 cumulative -31.1bp, Dec'24 -45.8bp.
  • Busy session ahead for Fed speakers with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr as well as regional Fed presidents Lorie Logan (Dallas), Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) and Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) scheduled to speak
  • Looking Ahead: UofM Sentiment & Monthly Budget Statement
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