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Tsys Futures Mixed As Curve Flattens, Tsys Borrwing Estimates In-line

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures had a relatively subdued session, weaker into the close with the front-end underperforming, there was some support after the Tsy borrow estimate decline from $847B to $740B announced, although there were no major surprises the estimates. TUU4 closed the session -0-00⅛ at 102-19, while TYU4 closed +0-04+ at 111-11
  • Cash treasury curves twist-flattened with yields 1.6bps higher to 3bps lower, the 2y closed -1.6bps at 4.400% and the 10y closed -1.9bps at 4.174%, the 2s10s slipped -3.597 to -22.742.
  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing index offered another regional Fed report that suggests surprise strength in the Philly Fed equivalent looks isolated. The index fell to -17.5 (cons -15.5) in July after -15.1, with a more notable slip in new orders from -1.3 to -12.8 for its lowest since Nov’23.
  • (MNI) Fed Preview - July 2024: September Signals In Spotlight - (See link)
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end look steady to mildly mixed vs. late Friday levels (*) -- Nov and Dec a touch: July'24 at -4% w/ cumulative at -1bp at 5.319%, Sep'24 cumulative -28.2bp (-28.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -43.9bp (-45.1bp), Dec'24 -67bp (-67.9bp).
  • Focus today will be on FHFA House Price Index
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