MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Tsys Futures Off Earlier Lows, Curve Steepens, ISM Later Today

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are off earlier lows with TUU4 is -0-00¾ at 102-02¾ while TYU4 is down -0-08+ at 109-23+, tsys looks to have followed French bond futures higher throughout the day, with OATU4 up 28 ticks, amid speculation a far-right party may not secure an absolute majority in France’s legislative election, and investors weighing up a Trump Presidency.
  • Volumes are above recent averages with TU 56k, FV 118k & TY 180k
  • Cash treasuries have erased earlier weakness with yields now lower across the curve. The 2Y -2.5bps at 4.729%, 5Y -1.8bps at 4.359% while the 10Y is -1bps at 4.386%.
  • APAC rates: NZGB yields are 1-3bps lower, ACGB yields are 2-9bps higher, while JGBs have seen selling through the belly with yields +/- 2bps.
  • The increasing likelihood of a Trump presidential victory has made curve steepeners an attractive bet, as it is expected to slow growth and increase inflation. PredictIt has Trump's odds of winning at 56% although this is down from 64% during the debate, while they have Biden's odds at just 31% chance of winning.
  • In-line with the steepening moves, projected rate cut pricing through year end looks steady to mildly higher vs. pre-data levels (*): July'24 at -10% w/ cumulative at -2.5bp at 5.302%, Sep'24 cumulative -18.6bp (-17.5bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.6bp (-26.6bp), Dec'24 -47.3bp (-45.3bp).
  • Looking ahead, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending MoM
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