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Tsys Futures Pare Earlier Gains, Ueda Speaks Before Parliament, Powell Later

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have been rangebound today, we initially opened stronger although have largely pared those gains. Trading have been largely just tsys roll activity today, although there were some block steepeners earlier, marking the first block trades during Asia this week from memory.
  • TUU4 is +00⅜ at 103-07⅛ vs highs of 103-08¼ while TYU4 is + 02 at 113-11+ vs highs of 113-15+
  • looking at the technical levels for TYU4, the bull theme remains intact as we remain above all key moving averages the recent breach of 111-01 (Jun 14 high) confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Initial resistance is 114-03 (Aug 6 high), while support is 112-29+ (20-day EMA)
  • Cash treasury yields have given back earlier gains and now trade about 1bps lower, the curve slightly steeper. The 2yr is back under 4% at 3.989%, while the 10yr is -0.8bps at 3.846%
  • BoJ's Ueda stated earlier that there has been no change in the CB's outlook, and that as rates are still low if the economy remains in good shape they may raise rates to neutral levels, he has been slightly less dovish than Deputy Gov Uchida.
  • Projected rate cuts through year-end have firm 1bps for Nov & Dec vs. Thursday closing levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -31.6bp (-32.7bp), Nov'24 cumulative -64.2bp (-67.2bp), Dec'24 -97.9bp (-100.4bp).
  • Today the focus will be on J Powell speech at Jackson Hole at 10:00 ET, we also have New home sales.
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