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Tsys Futures Pare Gains After JOLTS Jobs, Powell Slightly Dovish

US TSYS
  • Treasuries futures rallied after Fed Chair Powell made mildly dovish comments from from central bank economics conference in Sintra, Portugal. Recent inflation data suggest that "we are getting back on a disinflationary path", Powell stated, with the caveat that more is needed to be more confident that inflation is headed sustainably to 2% before loosening policy.
  • Treasuries pared gains after higher than expected JOLTS job openings of 8.14M vs. 7.946M est, while prior was down-revised to 7.919M from 8.059M.
  • TUU4 finished -0-01⅞+ at 102-01⅞, while TYU4 closed +0-09+ at 109-015, we are little changed at the open
  • Post NY close, there was a 6,400 block trade, likely seller of FVU4 at 106-08.75, trade may have been an unwinding of the 16k FV block buy made at a similar time the day before at 106-05.25
  • Treasuries remain vulnerable following yesterday’s move lower, marking an extension of the bear leg that stated Jun 14. Initial support is now 109-02+/109-00+ (July 1 low/ key support), a break here would open a move to 108-27+ (June 3 lows). Resistance sits at 110-00 (20-day EMA) above here 110-16 (Jun 28 high) becomes a target.
  • Cash treasury curve twist flattened on Tuesday, with better buying through the belly of the curve, yields were 1-3.5bps lower, although still trade near cycle highs.. The 2Y -1.4bps at 4.741%, 5Y -3.2bps at 4.394% while the 10Y was -3.0bps at 4.432%, the 2s10s was -1.522 at -31.372
  • Looking ahead, MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, S&P Global US PMI, Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders, ISM Services Index & FOMC Meeting Minutes
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