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Tsys Futures Pare Gains, Eyes Turn to US Payrolls

US TSYS
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  • Tsys futures did little throughout the Asian & European sessions, before jumping on a sizeable ADP private payrolls miss (99k vs cons 145k), the move was quickly erased a solid ISM Services report at 1000ET 51.5 (cons 51.4) triggered a reversal lower in TYs back to session lows.
  • Afternoon trade was relatively subdued, with Treasuries regaining ground into the close to settle in the middle of the session's range, with equities stabilizing and attention turning toward the employment report due out later today
  • TUZ4 closed at +0-00⅞ at 104-03+, while TYZ4 closed +0-06 at 114-24.
  • The cash tsys curve bull-flattened overnight, yields were 1-4bps lower. The 2yr was -1.1bps at 3.744% and have now broken below the the 2022 lows, while the 10yr -2.8bps at 3.727% holding below the yearly lows.
  • The 2s10s again traded un-inverted, hitting a high of +1.532, before closing the session -1.589 at -1.865.
  • MNI View: Deciding Factor Between 25bp Or 50bp Start To Easing Cycle (See link)
  • Fed funds was pricing has cooled slightly vs . Projected rate cut pricing through year end vs Wednesday close levels: Sep'24 cumulative -35.2bp (-36bp), Nov'24 cumulative -71.7bp (-3.2bp), Dec'24 -108.9bp (-111.2bp).
  • Today we have calendar is dominated by payrolls and their implications for Fed policy, later in the session we will hear from the FOMC's Williams, Goolsbee and Waller who are anticipated to provide a final steer on the rate outlook going into the pre-September meeting blackout starting this weekend.
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  • Tsys futures did little throughout the Asian & European sessions, before jumping on a sizeable ADP private payrolls miss (99k vs cons 145k), the move was quickly erased a solid ISM Services report at 1000ET 51.5 (cons 51.4) triggered a reversal lower in TYs back to session lows.
  • Afternoon trade was relatively subdued, with Treasuries regaining ground into the close to settle in the middle of the session's range, with equities stabilizing and attention turning toward the employment report due out later today
  • TUZ4 closed at +0-00⅞ at 104-03+, while TYZ4 closed +0-06 at 114-24.
  • The cash tsys curve bull-flattened overnight, yields were 1-4bps lower. The 2yr was -1.1bps at 3.744% and have now broken below the the 2022 lows, while the 10yr -2.8bps at 3.727% holding below the yearly lows.
  • The 2s10s again traded un-inverted, hitting a high of +1.532, before closing the session -1.589 at -1.865.
  • MNI View: Deciding Factor Between 25bp Or 50bp Start To Easing Cycle (See link)
  • Fed funds was pricing has cooled slightly vs . Projected rate cut pricing through year end vs Wednesday close levels: Sep'24 cumulative -35.2bp (-36bp), Nov'24 cumulative -71.7bp (-3.2bp), Dec'24 -108.9bp (-111.2bp).
  • Today we have calendar is dominated by payrolls and their implications for Fed policy, later in the session we will hear from the FOMC's Williams, Goolsbee and Waller who are anticipated to provide a final steer on the rate outlook going into the pre-September meeting blackout starting this weekend.