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Tsys Futures Rally On Soft US Data, 10y Below 4% Ahead Of Jobs Data

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures were rangebound heading into US session, before a higher initial Jobless claims saw futures make new highs, then came the ISM report which showed a large miss with futures rallied once more before finishing the session at highs and now back the March highs.
  • Tsys futures are steady post the NY close, and opened this changed as Asia gets underway on Friday, TUU4 closed +0-11 at 103-00⅞, while TYU4 is + 29+ at 112-23+
  • Cash treasury curve bull steepened with yields 2-11bps lower, the 2yr closed -10.9bps at 4.148%, this is a 24bps move lower in the past three sessions and we now are testing the yearly lows of 4.117%, while the 10y is back below 4% for the first time since Feb 2nd.
  • The 2s10s was +5.363 at -17.629, we now sit just off the recent highs made earlier this month of -11.301
  • Overnight, Initial jobless claims were notably higher coming in at 249k vs 236k, while continuing claims were 1877k vs 1855k. ISM Mfg was 46.8 vs 48.58 the lowest since November 23, while the largest miss was employment that came in at 43.4 vs 49.2 est which was the lowest since the pandemic
  • US OIS pricing have firmed a touch with the market fully pricing in one 25bps cuts for September and a cumulative 82bps of cuts into year-end.
  • Today we have Non Farm payrolls
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