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Tsys Futures Steady, Biden Drops Out, Fed In Blackout

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are steady in the front-end this morning, with very little reaction to Biden stepping out of the Presidential race, longer dated contracts are out-performing indicating the yield curve will bull flatten.
  • TUU4 is unchanged at 102-15⅛, TYU4 + 02+ at 110-29 and WNU4 is + 16 at 126-20
  • The treasury curve bear-steepened on Friday, with yields 2-5bps cheaper across the curve. the 2y closed +2.6bps and back above 4.50% at 4.511%, while the 10yr closed +3.7bps at 4.239%
  • On Friday, the Fed's Williams said the central bank remains committed to its 2% inflation target, adding that the longer run trends affecting a low neutral rate in the U.S. are still in place.
  • Harris is a overwhelming favorite to lead the Democrat party to the next election, with Gavin Newsom in the 2nd spot although PredictIt has him at just a 10% chance.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end look steady to mixed vs. late Thursday levels (*) -- Sep gains while Nov and Dec decline: July'24 at -4.5% w/ cumulative at -1.1bp at 5.318%, Sep'24 cumulative -25.9bp (-25.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -40.6bp (-41.1bp), Dec'24 -62.9bp (-64.6bp)
  • looking ahead today we have Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, the Fed is in a policy blackout until August 1.
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