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Tsys Futures Steady, Volumes Below Average Ahead Of Fed Thursday

US TSYS
  • It has been a subdued trading session for US tsys, ranges have been very tight while volumes are below average. TUU4 is currently trading at 102-18⅛, while TYU4 is - 01+ at 111-09+
  • Earlier there was a block vol trade - TYU4 109.5/112 strangle bought at 37 x5,000, there has been little else outside of this trade
  • The steepener trade has seen some unwinding over the past week after the 2s10s hit -11bps, its least inverted level for the year, while the 10s30s hit the least inverted since May 2023.
  • The cash treasury curve is flat to 0.5bps higher today, with the 10y trading +0.4bps at 4.178%.
  • The U.S. Treasury Department said Monday it expects to borrow USD740 billion in the third quarter, USD106 billion less than previously announced in April. For the fourth quarter, Treasury expects to borrow USD565 billion, lower than market estimates.
  • Thursday, the Fed meets for its July meeting, the market is pricing in a 4% chance of a cut as we look forward to September the market has fully priced in a cut, with a total of 66bps of cuts into year-end
  • Today, FHFA House Price Index, while Microsoft will release earnings after market.
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