January 23, 2025 05:04 GMT
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Trade In Narrow Ranges, Volumes Well Below Averages
US TSYS
- There has been very little to mention in tsys futures today, ranges have been very tight, while volumes are well below recent averages. TU is +00⅜ at 102-22¾, while TY is -00+ 108-17+. There has been no notable tsys flow trades.
- Looking at technical levels in the TY contract, The medium-term trend remains bearish and the recovery that started Jan 13, appears to be a correction. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 108-17+. This exposes 109-06, the Dec 31 high, and 109-16+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low.
- Cash tsys curve is slightly steeper today, with yields 0.5bps to 1bps lower. The 2yr is -0.8bps at 4.289%, while 10yr is -0.8bps at 4.603%. The 2s10s curve is unchanged at 31bps, after hitting lows of 28.5bps overnight.
- There was little to note from the Trump interview, with part 2 of the interviewing airing at the same time tomorrow on Fox, which will likely focus on foreign policy.
- Cash tsys curve is slightly steeper today, with yields 0.5bps to 1bps lower. The 2yr is -0.8bps at 4.289%, while TY is -0.6bps at 4.605%. The 2s10s curve is unchanged at 31bps, after hitting lows of 28.5bps overnight.
- Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 running largely steady vs. Wednesday's levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 at -0.1bp, Mar'25 at -6.4bp, May'25 at -11.9bp (-12.4bp), Jun'25 at -22.5bp (-22.7bp), Jul'25 steady at -26.6bp.
- Later today we have Jobless claims & Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity.
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