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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors
MNI POLITICAL RISK - Thune Eyes 'Deficit-Negative' Legislation
Tsys in Holding Pattern Ahead CPI/PPI
- Tsys remain mildly weaker after the bell, near the top end of a narrow range after another quiet data session with markets in a holding pattern ahead CPI/PPI on Thursday/Friday.
- Little reaction in rates following this morning's lower than expected Trade Balance (-$63.2B vs -$64.9B est). Rates appeared to follow EGBs as they drifted off lows following a number of EUR IG supply unwinds.
- Projected rate cuts for early 2024 recovered slightly after unwinding Mon's gains: January 2024 cumulative -1.1bp at 5.318%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -62.0% vs. -57.2% this morning w/ cumulative of -16.6bp at 5.163%, May 2024 chance of cut 86.8% vs. 85.6% this morning, cumulative -38.3bp at 4.946%. Fed terminal at 5.3275% in Jan'24.
- Current TYH4 at 111-29 (-4.5), well inside technicals: Treasuries remain in a short-term corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and the breach of this average, does suggest potential for a continuation lower near-term. The next key support lies at 110-25+, the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies continue to suggest the medium-term trend direction is up. A recovery would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 113-12, the Dec 27 high.
- Cross asset roundup: WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $1.4 (1.98%) at $72.16; Gold is up $0.73 (0.04%) at $2028.82; S&P E-Mini Futures down 13 points (-0.27%) at 4787.5.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.