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Tsys Off Midday Highs, 10Y Yield Back Over 4%, Limited React to Bostic

US TSYS
  • Still bid, Treasury futures continue to scale off midday highs after the bell (TYH4 +7.5 at 111-30.5, 10Y yield 4.0096%, -.0361). Block sales helped get things rolling, in addition to flurry of late rate lock selling as corporate supply resumes ($15.9B total for Monday).
  • No significant reaction to latest Atlanta Fed Bostic comments, says "Fed is in a very strong position right now, can let restrictive policy continue to work to slow inflation", still sees two 25bp rate cuts this year.
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 have gained slightly: January 2024 cumulative -1.1bp at 5.318%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -62% w/ cumulative of -16.6bp at 5.163%, May 2024 chance of cut 90.9% vs. -86.8% this morning, cumulative -39.4bp at 4.935%. Fed terminal at 5.3275% in Jan'24.
  • Current TYH4 at 112-02 (+11), well inside technicals: resistance at 112-19 (High Jan 4) vs. 111-06+ support (Low Jan 05). Curves flatter: 3M10Y -5.565 at -140.036, 2Y10Y -1.167 at -34.875. 10Y yield holding just below 4% at 3.9945% (-.0512).
  • Cross asset roundup: crude remains weaker/off lows (WTI -2.81 at 71.00), Gold weaker -18.27 at 2027.18., S&P Eminis near highs +58.0 at 4792.75.
  • Market focus remains on CPI/PPI inflation measures this Thursday/Friday respectively.
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