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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessTsys Off Midday Highs, 10Y Yield Back Over 4%, Limited React to Bostic
- Still bid, Treasury futures continue to scale off midday highs after the bell (TYH4 +7.5 at 111-30.5, 10Y yield 4.0096%, -.0361). Block sales helped get things rolling, in addition to flurry of late rate lock selling as corporate supply resumes ($15.9B total for Monday).
- No significant reaction to latest Atlanta Fed Bostic comments, says "Fed is in a very strong position right now, can let restrictive policy continue to work to slow inflation", still sees two 25bp rate cuts this year.
- Projected rate cuts for early 2024 have gained slightly: January 2024 cumulative -1.1bp at 5.318%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -62% w/ cumulative of -16.6bp at 5.163%, May 2024 chance of cut 90.9% vs. -86.8% this morning, cumulative -39.4bp at 4.935%. Fed terminal at 5.3275% in Jan'24.
- Current TYH4 at 112-02 (+11), well inside technicals: resistance at 112-19 (High Jan 4) vs. 111-06+ support (Low Jan 05). Curves flatter: 3M10Y -5.565 at -140.036, 2Y10Y -1.167 at -34.875. 10Y yield holding just below 4% at 3.9945% (-.0512).
- Cross asset roundup: crude remains weaker/off lows (WTI -2.81 at 71.00), Gold weaker -18.27 at 2027.18., S&P Eminis near highs +58.0 at 4792.75.
- Market focus remains on CPI/PPI inflation measures this Thursday/Friday respectively.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.