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Tsys Resume Climb Off Four Week Lows, Weaker Stocks, Soft Swiss CPI

US TSYS
  • Treasuries continue to climb off last week's 4 week lows this morning, a combination of weaker global equities and lower than expected Swiss CPI inflation data contributing to the move.
  • Midmorning data on tap: JOLTS Job Openings and Factory/Durables/Cap Goods Orders at 1000ET. The Fed remains in policy Blackout through June 13. US Treasury auctions $60B 42D Bill CMBs at 1130ET. Main focus this week is on Friday's headline employment figures for May, Bbg mean survey est at +185k vs. +175k prior.
  • Cash yields are currently running mildly lower: 2s -.0085 at 4.7995%, 10s -.0078 at 4.3806%, 30s -.0067 at 4.5309%, while curves look mildly mixed: 2s10s -0.129 at -42.299, 5s30s +0.573 at 13.500.
  • Meanwhile, Sep'24 10Y Treasury futures are trading back near mid-May highs, TYU4 at 109-22 (+4) vs. 109-23 high after breaching technical resistance of 109-12.5 yesterday (50-day EMA).
  • Monday's move clear break and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 109-28 next, the May 17 high. On the flipside, any resumption of bearish activity would instead refocus attention on support at 107-31.

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