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Tsys Well Bid After Prior Jobs Gains Down Revised

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures briefly gapped lower in response to mildly higher than expected June jobs gain of +206k vs. +190k est -- but quickly reversed course, extending session highs after prior jobs data was down revised.
  • A small beat for NFP growth of 206k (cons 190k) but with a return of heavy downward revisions. Two-month -111k, split evenly over May and April. Private sees surprises lower though, 136k (cons 160k) along with a -86k two-month revision skewed a little more to April.
  • The unemployment rate was stronger than expected as it increased to 4.05% in June (cons 4.0 with some skew to a 3.9 print). The 4.1 rounding on screens exaggerates the increase, but it's another 0.1pp increase from 3.96% in May and 3.86% in April.
  • Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures traded down to 109-17.5 low before rebounding to 110-17.5 high. Late buying saw the contract trading 110-19 (+17.5). Technical resistance at 111-01 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger.
  • Focus turns to June CPI next Thursday and PPI Friday. The latest equity earnings cycle kicks off next week Friday as well, banks headlining: Wells Fargo, Bank of NY Mellon, JP Morgan and Citigroup.
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