TTF Drifts Lower on Recovery in Norway Supply After Outage Yesterday

TTF front month is softer today with a slight recovery in Norwegian supplies after an unplanned outage at Nyhamna yesterday ended. LNG competition from Asia, the future of Russian gas transit via Ukraine and further unplanned Norwegian outages are all upside risks.

• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up slightly to 324.9mcm/d, but still curtailed by capacity reductions at Visund, Karsto, Troll and Skarv. Power was restored at the Nyhamna gas plant after an outage due to failure of an external power supply yesterday.
• Temperatures across Europe are forecast to remain warm through the coming two weeks with temperatures in NW Europe expected to rise further above normal into next week.
• European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged at 238mcm/d on June 17 according to Bloomberg but low compared to levels of around 395mcm/d this time last year.
• Net gas storage injection rates have edged back below normal again but total European stores are up to 73.85% full on June 17 according to GIE compared to the five year seasonal average of 63.3%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 57.6mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 213k on June 18.
  • TTF JUL 24 down 1.2% at 34.3€/MWh
  • TTF Q3 24 down 1% at 34.85€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down 0.5% at 38.75€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 0.3% at 36.23€/MWh