TTF Edges Higher But Mild European Weather Lingers

TTF is holding just above the previous close after falling to a low of 44.57€/MWh earlier this week. Near term fundamentals suggest healthy supplies and low demand with mild weather still holding across much of Europe.

• TTF DEC 23 up 0.5% at 46.3€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 0.8% at 48.19€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.1% at 46.5€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 0.3% at 50.34€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows a brief cold spell in UK and Italy over the weekend before returning back above normal into the middle of the month.
• European LNG sendout increased up to the highest since June 406mcm/d on 6 Nov. LNG imports into Northwest Europe are expected to see a month on month rise in November based on current arrival rates according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up near the highest of the year at 341.7mcm/d but is expected to dip again into the weekend with a 20.5mcm/d outage at Oseberg on 10-12 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels are almost unchanged from yesterday at 99.62% full on 6 Nov with net injections of just 97GWh/d according to GIE data. The previous five year average for this time of year is 90.0% with withdrawals starting from 3 Nov.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still low at 45.5mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were steady yesterday at 238k.