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TTF Extends Decline Driven by Warm Start to Oct

NATURAL GAS

TTF extends the decline to reverse the gains seen in late September as demand stays low due to warm early winter weather, on high storage up near 96%, with the gradual return of Norwegian pipeline supplies and with a surge in volumes of LNG at sea.

  • The price decline is focused on the near term resulting in the Q1 premium over the front month November contract surging back up to around 8€/MWh compared to just 4.6€/MWh on 28 Sep.
  • The Win24-Win23 spread has however continued to close from up over 5€/MWh at times last week to 2.27€/MWh today.
  • TTF second month 30 day historical volatility is falling from as high as 145% at the start of September back to 105%.
    • TTF NOV 23 down -6.6% at 36.75€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -3.4% at 44.54€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -3.4% at 43.5€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -3.1% at 47.87€/MWh
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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