TTF Finding Support After Pull Back but Fundamentals Still Bearish

TTF front month is finding some support after pulling back from a high of over 28€/MWh late last week to a low of 25.18€/MWh yesterday. Fundamentals remain bearish with mild weather in the coming weeks while LNG and Norwegian pipeline supplies are unchanged.

• TTF MAY 24 up 0.5% at 25.7€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 up 0.3% at 26.4€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 0.4% at 30.78€/MWh
• TTF SUM 25 up 0.5% at 29.57€/MWh
• The European weather forecast is relatively unchanged with warmer than normal temperatures expected in the next two weeks. Temperatures are due to rise to a high on April 6 before cooling slightly towards the middle of the month.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 340.0cm/d in line with the average over the last week. A planned outage at Kasto is ongoing.
• European LNG sendout was at 294mcm/d on Apr. 2 compared to an average of 303mcm/d over the previous week.
• European gas storage was up to 59.39% full on Apr. 2 according to GIE after the start of net injections last week. The seasonal five year average is 42.2% full.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still high at 75.0mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was yesterday at 301k.