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TTF Front Month to Low of the Day and Q1-24/Q1-25 Spread Widens

NATURAL GAS

The decline in front month TTF today towards the lows of last week just below 40€/MWh have driven the Q1 2024 – Q1 2025 spread down to a contract spread low of around -4.4€/MWh.

  • TTF near term prices are trending lower due to healthy supplies and the forecast of warmer weather later this week as temperatures in NW Europe are expected to rise above normal from around Dec 8. November gas demand remained well below the five-year average despite colder weather towards the end of the month helping to ease any winter balance concern.
  • Some analysts have recently estimated storage to end the winter season as much as 55% due to the muted demand and the near capacity stocks coming into the season, and despite recent high withdrawals.
  • The Sum24-Win24 is down to the lowest since early October to -4.15€/MWh.
    • TTF JAN 24 down -7.4% at 40.29€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -7.1% at 40.61€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -6.4% at 40.05€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -5.3% at 44.21€/MWh

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