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TTF Lowest Since August on Warmer Weather Despite Supply Risks


TTF has fallen to the lowest since Aug 24 with milder weather in Europe next week and above average gas storage levels to offset any Middle East supply concerns and lower US export terminal feedgas due to weather disruption.

    • TTF FEB 24 down -1.4% at 29.5€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.7% at 29.57€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.4% at 34.12€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down -1% at 31.51€/MWh
  • Qatar and Russia now appear to have diverted LNG tankers away from the Suez Canal after several vessels paused transit through the region yesterday according to Bloomberg ship tracking.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to turn from cold this week to above normal from around Jan 22 and with the warmer weather remaining until the end of the month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to 348.3mcm/d today after small unplanned outages yesterday.
  • European natural gas storage was down to 79.14% full on Jan 14 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 67.8%. Net withdrawal rates have fallen back just below normal after surging last week.
  • Toal European LNG sendout fell to around 390mcm/d over the weekend and back in line with the average seen in December but down from a peak of 509mcm/d on Jan 9 according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara edged back up to 48.8mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes yesterday were 244k.

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