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TTF Market Assesses Impact of New EU Sanctions on Russia

NATGAS

Near term TTF markets are softer after the EU approved its 14th sanctions package on Russia over the aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions still allow for EU companies to purchase Russian LNG but prohibited transshipment at European ports for re-exporting to other countries.

  • The measures will impact how Russia ships LNG to countries such as China and India and could increase transportation costs to Asian buyers. The restrictions won’t affect shipments for the EU or the security of supply, according to a recent draft cited by Bloomberg.
  • EU Commissioner Kadri Simson recently said the ban would not pose a problem for Asia with replacement volumes available in a liquid market even if Russia doesn’t find alternative transport means.
  • Russian LNG transshipments and re-exports originating from Yamal LNG currently occur at two EU ports: Montoir in France and Zeebrugge in Belgium. The halt at these ports could increase transshipments off the northern Russian port of Murmansk or more cargoes from Yamal LNG could remain within Europe, according to Bloomberg.
  • A French Senate committee yesterday recommended that the country end imports of Russian LNG “as soon as possible.”
    • TTF JUL 24 down 1% at 34.98€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 down 0.9% at 35.56€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.2% at 39.69€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.3% at 36.98€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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