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TTF Opens Lower But Supported By Extended Troll Outage

NATURAL GAS

TTF is edging down from a high of just over 35.5€/MWh yesterday with warm weather in July, Norway outages and lower LNG imports set against low demand and healthy storage levels.

    • TTF AUG 23 down -0.5% at 35.24€/MWh
  • Competition for LNG supplies from Asia remains an upside risk to European prices with LNG imports to China up 11% on the year in H1 2023 but still below 2021 levels. Prices might need to rise above current levels of $10-11/MMBtu to attract more cargoes back to Europe from Asia according to ICIS. LNG sendout to Europe was up slightly to 317mcm/d on 3 July but remains below levels seen this time last year.
  • Norway’s supply has increased slightly this week to 252.5mcm/d today. The 21.5mcm/d cut at Troll has this morning been extended by 4 days to Jul 10 according to Gassco.
  • Above normal temperatures in the next two weeks are adding some support with temperatures forecast to rise to a peak over the coming weekend before cooling slightly.
  • Total European storage remains on track to refill to the EU target level before the end of the summer despite below normal injection rates. Gas in store was up to 78.14% full on 3 July according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 62.65%.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today up to 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 64.6mcm/d.

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