TTF Opens Lower to Extend Decline From Yesterday

TTF has opened lower again today after falling from a high of 39.7€/MWh amid low demand and high storage while Norwegian maintenance should start to return this month.

• TTF AUG 23 down -1.6% at 33.4€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.1% at 48.9€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.7% at 48.88€/MWh
• EU and GB demand in June was down 11% YoY and 15% lower than the 2017-21 average while H1 2023 demand was 12% down from last year according to ICIS data.
• Norway’s supply has increased slightly this week at 250.3mcm/d today but some further increases have been pushed back with delays to works at Troll by two days and Oseberg by one day.
• LNG sendout to Europe has dropped down to 300mcm/d on 2 July to the lowest level since lows in August and September last year. NW European sendout is below last year’s levels for the first time since a brief dip below in mid April.
• Above normal weather in July is adding some support with the latest forecast showing temperatures warming over the coming few days with above normal then holding throughout most of the remaining two week outlook.
• Total European storage remains on track to refill to the EU target level before the end of the summer despite below normal injection rates. Gas in store was up to 77.86% full on 2 July according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 62.3%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today up to 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 63.1mcm/d.