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TTF Pulls Back As Strong LNG Imports Offset Cooler Weather

NATURAL GAS

TTF pulls back from earlier gains with strong LNG imports helping to balance against increased heating demand as temperatures fall below normal.

  • LNG imports into NW Europe were at 286mcm/d on Dec 2 compared to the November average of 270mcm/d. After today another 25 LNG tankers are currently expected into NWE in the next couple of weeks.
  • NW Europe remains at a premium to JKM across the curve throughout 2023. Cooler weather is supporting European prices and high storage levels, weak Chinese demand and warm weather forecasts are limiting the upside of Asian prices. The front month JKM is currently at a -10.8$/mmbtu discount to TTF having traded between -5$/mmbtu and -10$/mmbtu for much of November.
  • The US LNG netback to Europe for January is estimated by Bloomberg at 34.52$/mmbtu and to Asia is estimated at 23.68$/mmbtu.
    • TTF JAN 23 up 0.8% at 136.64€/MWh
    • NBP JAN 23 up 1.5% at 341.5p/th
    • JKM Jan 23 down -6% at 31.76$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Jan 23 down -2$/mmbtu at -10.9$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JAN 23 down -5.1% at 5.96$/mmbtu

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