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TTF Recovers Earlier Losses Amid Cold Weather Next Week

NATURAL GAS

TTF reverses the initial dip earlier today supported by the potential for higher demand next week due to cold weather. Front month has risen from the lowest since August seen on Jan 2 of just over 30€/MWh. Upside however remains limited by steady European supplies and high storage and despite supply risks due to Middle East tensions.

  • The TTF curve remains relatively flat until the end of the summer with reduced energy security fears weighing on the balance of winter. Healthy supply and muted demand could help support end of current winter storage levels and take some pressure off the restocking over the summer months.
  • Sum 24 – Win 24 spread has narrowed from as wide as -5.35€/MWh in mid Dec to -3.9€/MWh today while the Sum24-Sum25 spread is near parity at -0.075€/MWh.
  • TTF second month implied volatility is holding around 97% while front month 30 day historic volatility is at 73%.
    • TTF FEB 24 up 1.8% at 34€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 2% at 33.76€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.8% at 37.76€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.2% at 33.71€/MWh

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