TTF Resumes Decline With Volatility the Lowest Since Jun 2021

TTF resumes the pull back from the peak early last week of 28.725€/MWh as front month falls below the lows from Friday. Front month has now reversed all the gains seen on Mar. 4 with warm weather expected throughout most of March limiting the end of season heating demand.

• Second month TTF implied volatility has fallen again to the lowest since June 2021 at 61.25%.
• LNG supply from the US dipped in February but the expected return of train 3 at the Freeport export terminal from outage could help boost US supplies into the start of the European storage injection season. Freeport feedgas supplies have however seen additional declines at times in the last week with flows near just one third of total capacity over the weekend.
• US LNG exports are slightly more profitable to Europe over Asia for April according to BNEF at 6.08$/mmbtu to Europe and 5.91$/mmbtu to Asia. The netbacks however show spreads in favour of flows to Asia throughout the remainder of the summer period.
• The start of the German natural gas inventory net injection season could be as early as mid-March in the case of mild temperatures according to INES last week.
• The Sum24 – Win24 spread is today edging lower to around -4.1€/MWh while the Sum24-Sum25 spread has also widened again slightly to -2.7€/MWh.
  • TTF APR 24 down -3.9% at 25.35€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 down -3.7% at 25.71€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down -2.9% at 29.8€/MWh
  • NBP APR 24 down -3.9% at 63.22p/th
  • JKM Apr 24 down -11% at 8.15$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Apr 24 unchanged at 0$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas APR 24 up 0.3% at 1.81$/mmbtu