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TTF Sets Norway Outages Against Warm Weather and Slow Freeport Recovery

NATGAS

TTF drifted down from a peak of €31.84/MWh last week with warm weather in the coming week and recovering Freeport LNG feedgas supplies set against curtailed Norway supply and ongoing geopolitical risks.

    • TTF JUN 24 up 0.1% at 30.56€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 down 0.1% at 31.09€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 1.3% at 35.28€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.8% at 33.94€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today at 295.0mcm/d with Gassco showing field and processing plant outages of 42mcm/d today rising to 70mcm/d on May 9.
  • Net European gas storage injections are just below normal rates with total stores near the five year range high at 63.25% full on May 4 according to GIE. The five year seasonal average is 48.3% full.
  • European LNG sendout was around 309mcm/d on May 3 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 328mcm/d over the previous week and 446mcm/d in the first week of May 2023.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to hold above normal through the coming week but could see slightly cooler weather during week two from the middle of the month.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.1mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 62.0mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 334k on May 3.
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