TTF Steady as Low Demand and High Storage Offset Supply Risks

TTF front month is trading near the previous close with no clear direction as supply reductions due to Norwegian maintenance and LNG supply risks are balanced against low European demand and healthy natural gas storage levels.

• TTF OCT 23 down -0.3% at 34.35€/MWh
• Chevron said on Tuesday the firm has continuity plans for potential disruptions to LNG supplies in place as a final round of talks take places to try to avert the strike. Workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities could extend strikes with 24-hour stoppages from 14 Sep after strikes of up to 11 hours per day from 7-13 Sep.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are relatively unchanged from yesterday at 140.5mcm/d today with capacity expected to gradually return over the next couple of weeks. The large capacity reduction at Kollsnes is scheduled to ease from tomorrow and capacity outage at Troll expected to reduce from Friday.
• LNG sendout to Europe remain relatively unchanged this week at about 346mcm/d on 4 Sep but is still below levels from last year due to high gas storage and low European demand.
• European natural gas storage continues to edge higher up to 93.34% full on a 4 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 81.9%. Injection rates are relatively slow as gas in store levels approach full capacity.
• Temperatures across Europe are still forecast to remain above normal although could drift slightly cooler in the second week of the outlook. Long-term forecasts are showing minimum temperatures well above seasonal normal in Paris and to a lesser extent Milan until mid-October according to Argus.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara remain high at 67.0mcm/d today.