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TTF Supported by Middle East Risks and Colder Weather


TTF front month is seeing support today from levels near the lows of the year with colder weather in northern Europe next week and risks of rising Middle East tensions. Joint US/UK military strikes in Yemen targeted the Houthis in response to recent attacks on commercial ships.

    • TTF FEB 24 up 2.5% at 31.6€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 2.4% at 31.68€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2% at 36.18€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1.7% at 32.92€/MWh
  • Recent weather forecasts have turned colder for northern Europe into next week although central areas are expected to return to normal this weekend and above normal is expect in southern areas next week. Milder weather is expected to return to NW Europe from around Jan 22.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down at 340.2mcm/d today due to an unplanned outage today at Aasta Hansteen amid process problems.
  • European natural gas storage was down to 81.77 full on Jan 10 according to GIE data after a surge in withdrawals since Jan 7 driven by the cold weather. Storage remains well above the seasonal five year average of 69.9%.
  • Net European LNG import sendout is holding at strong levels up at the highest since April at 502mcm/d on Jan 10 according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 47.7mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes yesterday were 224k.

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