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TTF Time Spreads Narrow as Front Month Rallies

NATURAL GAS

TTF time spreads narrow as front month rallies to the highest since Feb. 6 with cooler weather expected across parts of northern Europe from early next week and with a drop in Norwegian pipeline supply. Geopolitical risks are also adding to upside pressure on energy markets with further drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the last week.

  • LNG buying interest in Asia due to the low prices is providing added support after a mild winter, and muted industrial demand in Europe has kept storage high. US LNG exports are more profitable to Asia over Europe throughout the summer period according to BNEF.
  • Feed gas flows to US LNG export terminals remain below normal while total European LNG imports declined 7% last week. The Freeport LNG terminal is restarting train 3 but at least two trains are expected to run through April, before all three trains come online in May according to Bloomberg.
  • The Apr24 - Sum 24 spread has narrowed this week from -0.38€/MWh to the smallest spread since early Jan at about -0.15€/MWh today.
  • Summer 24 prices have followed the front higher, taking the Sum 24 – Win 24 spread to around -3.6€/MWh from as wide as -4.75€/MWh in late February.
  • The Sum24-Sum25 spread has also narrowed from around -3.1€/MWh to -1.65€/MWh.
    • TTF APR 24 up 5.5% at 28.5€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 5.1% at 28.61€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 4.2% at 32.18€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 3.4% at 30.25€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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