TTF Weighs Supply Risks Against Stable Fundamentals

TTF front month is edging higher today with no clear direction as supply risks from strong Asia demand and Russia supply are weighed against healthy storage levels and a cooling weather forecast.

• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe this week is expected to cool back to near or even just below normal into the start of July. The second week of the outlook shows temperatures holding near normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 332.6mcm/d today with small ongoing outages at Kasto, Troll and Visund according to Gassco.
• European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged on the day at 237mcm/d on June 24 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 244mcm/d so far in June.
• Total European stores are up to 75.56% full on June 24 according to GIE compared to the five year seasonal average of 65.5%. Net injections rates have increased to just 19.9% below normal in the last week compared to 28.4% the previous week.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 57.5cm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 218k on June 25.
  • TTF JUL 24 up 0.5% at 35.04€/MWh
  • TTF Q3 24 up 0.5% at 35.55€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 0.9% at 39.82€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 0.6% at 37€/MWh