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TURKEY: HSBC See Risk That CBRT Raises Year-End Inflation Forecast

TURKEY
  • HSBC make only minor revisions to their inflation forecasts following today's release. One driver of the revision is wholesale natural gas prices, which were raised by 38% this month. The energy regulator said this would increase average household bills by 24%, corresponding to a 0.6pp impact on headline inflation.
  • Keeping in mind that cumulative inflation in the first seven months of the year was 28.8% and services inflation in particular has been sticky so far, HSBC see some risk that the central bank could revise up its end-2024 estimate.
  • HSBC expect the policy rate to remain stable at 50% this year, but then see it falling to 30% by end-2025, with 500bp of rate cuts per quarter. The risks to this base case are tilted towards a slightly earlier start to the easing cycle and/or more front-loaded cuts in 2025, they note, as headline inflation will have dipped below 40% in Q1 already, on their forecasts.
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