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Twist Flatter With Fedspeak incl Powell and 10Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries trade twist flatter, ranging from 3bp cheaper to 1bp richer with the pivot at 20s. Cheapening pressure is led by 3s, after yesterday’s supply came in almost on the screws and was digested well.
  • TYZ3 at 108-01+ trades towards the middle of the overnight range to consolidate yesterday’s climb, with again solid volumes of 400k. The short-term bull theme is still seen in play with resistance at 108-25 (Nov 3 high).
  • Fed Funds still show just 3.5bp of cumulative tightening over the next two meetings, followed by 91bp of cuts to end-2024 with the Dec’24 rate sitting 3bp higher on the day.
  • Fedspeak: Chair Powell opening remarks at 0915ET, Williams (voter) keynote address at 1340ET, VC Supervision Barr (voter) at 1400ET, Jefferson (voter) closing remarks at 1645ET.
  • Data: Weekly MBA data Nov 3 (0700ET), Wholesale trade sales/inventories Sep/Sep F (1000ET).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $40B 10Y note auction (91282CJJ1) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $56B 17W Bill auction – 1130ET

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