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U/E Rate Recent Trajectory Little Altered By Annual SA Revisions

US DATA
  • The u/e rate prints 3.74% in Dec (cons 3.8), with marginally more hawkish recent revisions following 3.72% in Nov (initial 3.74%) and 3.84% in Oct (initial 3.88%).
  • The revised profile leaves the Sahm rule slightly further away from triggering, at 0.27pps vs the 0.5pp that has historically been consistent with a recession. It falls from 0.29pp in Nov vs the initial 0.31.
  • Within the household survey, the new SA factors haven't notably dampened high volatility. Employment slid -683k in Dec after +586k (revised down from 747k) in Nov and -270k (initial -348k) in Oct.

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