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Free AccessU.Mich Inflation Expectations Jump As Sentiment Wanes (But Only The Preliminary Release)
- U.Mich 1Y inflation expectations increased further to 4.4% (cons 4.0) in the preliminary November release, building on the 4.2% in the finalized October print after it had been revised up from a preliminary 3.8% for a sharp rise from the 3.2% in September.
- 5-10Y expectations also saw a surprise increase to 3.2% (cons 3.0) from 3.0%, breaking its 2.9-3.1 range seen in all but two months since Aug’21 and in turn pushing to its highest since 2011.
- As a word of caution, recall the Jun’22 preliminary report when 5-10Y expectations surprisingly jumped to 3.3% before being revised down to 3.1% in the finalized print. Powell noted that in last week’s FOMC conference when asking in Q&A. “I think the UM thing got blown out of proportion a little bit, it was actually a preliminary estimate that got revised away, and I said it was preliminary in it, but that didn't get picked up”.
- Consumer sentiment on the other hand was notably softer than expected at 60.4 (cons 63.7) after 63.8 with declines in both current conditions and expectations. It's the lowest since May.
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.