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MNI Employment Insight: Underlying Metrics Show Strength

US

MNI has just published our review of the November U.S. Employment Report.

  • This includes our analysis of the report, including the disconnect between the Household and Employment surveys, and what the data means for the December FOMC decision.

Also included are sell-side takes on the report:

  • Most sell-side analysts note that behind the headline weakness of the payrolls print was a report with signs of underlying strength.
  • There is general consensus that the pace of taper will still be accelerated with at least an announcement that it will do so at the upcoming Dec 15 meeting, although Wells Fargo believe there is a chance it could be delayed to January.
  • There doesn’t appear to have been a change in rate call although TD believe it opens the door for a less hawkish dot plot as participation rises and average hourly earnings soften.

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