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Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish


Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High


'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate


Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

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  • "Although the recent inflation and labour market data arguably support the case for a rate hike, the latest comments from some MPC members, in particular Michael Saunders (generally seen as a hawk), suggest that the MPC might prefer to wait for more clarity on Omicron."
  • "We think that the MPC would be in a better position to gauge the economic fallout from the new variant in the following meeting on 3 February."
  • "For the time being, we assume relatively mild economic fallout from Omicron, implying no new lockdowns, and hence expect the MPC will deliver a 15bps hike at its first 2022 meeting on 3 February"
  • UBS now see the "first 15bps hike on 3 February 2022, followed by two more 25bp hikes in May and November 2022 (and two more hikes in 2023)."
  • "If the health risks stemming from Omicron turn out to be severe, thus warranting tighter mobility restrictions or even another lockdown, inflation could thus be somewhat lower in the near term but decline more slowly in 2022... should a new lockdown be introduced in Q1, we would envisage the first hike being pushed further out into 2022."