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UBS Offer Below Consensus Payrolls View

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • UBS expect NFP growth of 160k in October (cons 180k) and private payrolls growth at 125k (cons 145k).
  • It's held down in part by the 25K impact of the UAW strike (~30K if we include Mack Trucks) with notably the softer than expected ADP having "no bearing on our [already below consensus] expectations”.
  • “The UAW strike idling other workers could be a downside risk to the projection, but the survey needs to capture them [with potential size unclear]. Auto assembly plants tend to be large establishments, and the larger the establishment the more likely they are to be captured in the survey, given the establishment survey's stratified random sampling design (one "strata" is establishment size).”
  • “We expect that government employment poses upside risk in October, but we expect private employment slowed to a 125K increase, weighed down not only by strikes but also by weaker holiday inflows into retailers and other slowing.”
  • They see AHE at 0.27% M/M with the average working week holding steady at 34.4 hours.
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