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UBS Raise Oil Forecasts on Demand Growth and OPEC+ Cuts

OIL

UBS has increased oil forecasts $5/bbl higher across all tenors with an increase in oil demand growth estimates for 2024 and reduction in Q2 OPEC+ crude production.

  • Brent oil is likely to trade in the upper half of its new predicted trading range of $85/bbl –$95/bbl.
  • Oil demand growth is expected at 1.5mbpd in 2024 and 1.3mbpd in 2025.
  • Market conditions this summer are expected to allow for a gradual unwinding of some of voluntary OPEC+ production cuts.
  • Russian crude production to decline to 9mbpd by June compared to 9.5mbpd in Q1 24.

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