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UK Data Forecasts - September BOE MPC Policy Decision

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:19 GMT Sep 11/07:19 EST Sep 11
By Jamie Satchithanantham
     LONDON (MNI) - No major surprises are expected from policymakers at the MPC
meeting scheduled for September 13 (minutes/decision published September 14),
according to the 22 analysts polled in our preliminary forecast poll.
     Exchange rate induced rise in prices and an historically tight labour
market continue to test MPC's member's tolerance of above-target inflation, but
the general view of analysts is that the data seen since the last meeting in
August would not have done much to convince them to start a tightening cycle.
     Of those who expressed a forecast for the Bank Rate vote, all see it at
7-2, presumably with Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders again the dissenters.
                                   Sep                  Sep                  Sep
                                   BOE                  BOE                  BOE
                   MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision
                           Bank Rate %           Unch. Vote            Hike Vote
Date Out                        14-Sep               14-Sep               14-Sep
Median                             0.3                  7.0                  2.0
Forecast High                      0.3                  7.0                  2.0
Forecast Low                       0.3                  7.0                  2.0
Deviation                          0.0                  0.0                  0.0
Count                               22                    8                    8
Prior                             0.25                  6.0                  2.0
ABN Amro                          0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Barclays                          0.25                  7.0                  2.0
Berenberg                         0.25                  N/A                  N/A
BofAML                            0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Capital Economics                 0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Credit Suisse                     0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Commerzbank                       0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Daiwa                             0.25                  N/A                  N/A
HSBC                              0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Investec                          0.25                  7.0                  2.0
JP Morgan                         0.25                  7.0                  2.0
LBBW                              0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Lloyds TSB                        0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Natixis                           0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Nomura                            0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Oxford Economics                  0.25                  N/A                  N/A
Pantheon                          0.25                  7.0                  2.0
RBC                               0.25                  7.0                  2.0
Scotia                            0.25                  7.0                  2.0
Stan Chart                        0.25                  7.0                  2.0
Societe Generale                  0.25                  N/A                  N/A
UniCredit                         0.25                  7.0                  2.0
     Both McCafferty and Saunders have gone on record defending their hawkish
stance and they are not expected to flip back to the dovish side of the table.
     That means eyes will be fixed on two other committee members -- Andy
Haldane and Dave Ramsden.
     Earlier this summer, BOE Chief Economist, Haldane, voiced his opinion that
rates could be hiked before the close of the year. This excited markets given it
came only a day after Governor Mark Carney dampened speculation of a hike.
     "Provided the data are still on track, I do think that beginning the
process of withdrawing some of the incremental stimulus provided last August
would be prudent moving into the second half of the year," said Haldane in a
June 21 speech.
     Haldane ultimately voted to keep the Bank Rate unchanged as he had not seen
the pickup in wages he would have like to have seen and conceding there was
still "some chance" of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the economy.
     Ramsden, on the other hand, is more of an unknown quantity and having only
started his tenure as the Bank's Deputy Governor of Banking and Markets on
September 4. According to city analysts, he is seen voting with Carney in
keeping the Bank Rate unchanged.
     As the Treasury's chief economic advisor, Ramsden has ample experience with
central banking matters, having previously advised current and former
chancellors Philip Hammond and George Osborne on the government's austerity
package following the crisis.
     Thus with talk the potential unwind of QE gaining traction, not only in the
UK but across other advanced economies, Ramsden's introduction to the MPC may
see communication on this subject increase.
     Along with the unanimous view among the analysts polled that the Committee
would keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.25%, they saw the stock of assets
purchased as part of the QE programme also unchanged -- Gilts at stg435bn and
Corporate Bonds at stg10bn.
                                    Sep                      Sep
                                    BOE                      BOE
                    MPC Policy Decision      MPC Policy Decision
                     Gilt Purch Stg bln  Corp Bond Purch Stg bln
Date Out                         14-Sep                   14-Sep
Median                            435.0                     10.0
Forecast High                     435.0                     10.0
Forecast Low                      435.0                     10.0
Standard Deviation                  0.0                      0.0
Count                                14                        9
Prior                             435.0                     10.0
ABN Amro                          435.0                      N/A
Barclays                          435.0                     10.0
Berenberg                         435.0                      N/A
BofAML                            435.0                     10.0
Credit Suisse                     435.0                     10.0
HSBC                              435.0                     10.0
Investec                          435.0                     10.0
Lloyds TSB                        435.0                     10.0
Natixis                           435.0                      N/A
Nomura                            435.0                      N/A
Oxford Economics                  435.0                     10.0
RBC                               435.0                     10.0
Societe Generale                  435.0                     10.0
UniCredit                         435.0                      N/A
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email:
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |

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