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UK DATA: MNI UK Labour Market Preview

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  • Overall we see downside risks to the median expectation of private regular AWE data (4.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to July) but given the large uncertainty over the public sector wage growth don’t have a strong view surrounding the 5.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to July that consensus looks for in total regular wage growth.
  • There is also huge uncertainty here due to the continued questions surrounding the reliability of LFS data. This will be watched closely but most analysts have marked down their estimates for this month so the median expectation is for 4.1%.
  • Finally, the claimant count increased again in last month’s release but the ONS noted that this was largely due to an administrative change that impacted the earnings threshold.

We look at all of these factors in more detail in the full document here.

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  • Overall we see downside risks to the median expectation of private regular AWE data (4.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to July) but given the large uncertainty over the public sector wage growth don’t have a strong view surrounding the 5.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to July that consensus looks for in total regular wage growth.
  • There is also huge uncertainty here due to the continued questions surrounding the reliability of LFS data. This will be watched closely but most analysts have marked down their estimates for this month so the median expectation is for 4.1%.
  • Finally, the claimant count increased again in last month’s release but the ONS noted that this was largely due to an administrative change that impacted the earnings threshold.

We look at all of these factors in more detail in the full document here.