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UK DATA: UK Balance of Payment and GDP Second Estimate Due 07:00BST

UK DATA
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  • The first estimate of GDP increased by 0.6%Q/Q, a tenth below the BOE's estimate.
  • The print was driven by services contributing 0.8ppts, which was offset by falls of 0.1ppts in both the production and construction sectors.
  • Looking further ahead GDP is expected to remain positive but to grow at a softer pace; the BOE revised its Q3 forecast from 0.4% Q/Q to 0.3% in the September MPC meeting and latest September PMI data shows a softening in both services and manufacturing prints.
  • For the balance of payments, the focus will be on the current account balance ( -GBP33.0bln consensus, -GBP20.995bln in Q1 2024). Analyst estimates range from -23.0 to -36.0bln with a downside skew.
  • From the monthly GDP publication on 11 September, absent any revisions net trade deteriorated to a deficit of GBP18.8bln from GBP3.3bln in Q1. This was driven by a fall in net goods trade, largely due to weaker global demand.
  • Both the Primary and Secondary Accounts are expected to continue to contribute negatively to the current account.
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  • The first estimate of GDP increased by 0.6%Q/Q, a tenth below the BOE's estimate.
  • The print was driven by services contributing 0.8ppts, which was offset by falls of 0.1ppts in both the production and construction sectors.
  • Looking further ahead GDP is expected to remain positive but to grow at a softer pace; the BOE revised its Q3 forecast from 0.4% Q/Q to 0.3% in the September MPC meeting and latest September PMI data shows a softening in both services and manufacturing prints.
  • For the balance of payments, the focus will be on the current account balance ( -GBP33.0bln consensus, -GBP20.995bln in Q1 2024). Analyst estimates range from -23.0 to -36.0bln with a downside skew.
  • From the monthly GDP publication on 11 September, absent any revisions net trade deteriorated to a deficit of GBP18.8bln from GBP3.3bln in Q1. This was driven by a fall in net goods trade, largely due to weaker global demand.
  • Both the Primary and Secondary Accounts are expected to continue to contribute negatively to the current account.