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UK DATA: UK Public Sector Finance Due at 7:00 BST

UK DATA
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  • These data may be the last release to be included in the Autumn Budget forecasts (although that cutoff may have already come). However, either way they are important in assessing the outlook for public finances ahead of the Budget on 30 October. Note that the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility - the UK's independent fiscal forecaster) will release new forecasts alongside the Budget.
  • August is a month where we will see leftover self-assessment income tax receipts (after weaker than expected receipts in July). There could be downside risks from lower interest cost payments.
  • Currently, the fiscal year-to-date, CGNCR (Central Government Net Cash Requirement) is running a cumulative GBP12.9bln above the OBR forecast at a cumulative GBP87.0bln (vs GBP9.5bln above forecast in the first three months of 2024/25). This indicates there are potential upward revisions to the gilt remit or bill issuance coming.
  • The OBR forecast PSNBex (public sector net borrowing ex public sector banks) at GBP11.2bln (vs 12.5bln Bloomberg consensus, 3.1bln prior).
  • The Bloomberg consensus looks for PSNB inc public sector banks at GBP12.2bln (vs 2.2bln prior)
  • Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) ex public sector banks is 99.4% of GDP, an increase from 97.7% in April 2024.
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  • These data may be the last release to be included in the Autumn Budget forecasts (although that cutoff may have already come). However, either way they are important in assessing the outlook for public finances ahead of the Budget on 30 October. Note that the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility - the UK's independent fiscal forecaster) will release new forecasts alongside the Budget.
  • August is a month where we will see leftover self-assessment income tax receipts (after weaker than expected receipts in July). There could be downside risks from lower interest cost payments.
  • Currently, the fiscal year-to-date, CGNCR (Central Government Net Cash Requirement) is running a cumulative GBP12.9bln above the OBR forecast at a cumulative GBP87.0bln (vs GBP9.5bln above forecast in the first three months of 2024/25). This indicates there are potential upward revisions to the gilt remit or bill issuance coming.
  • The OBR forecast PSNBex (public sector net borrowing ex public sector banks) at GBP11.2bln (vs 12.5bln Bloomberg consensus, 3.1bln prior).
  • The Bloomberg consensus looks for PSNB inc public sector banks at GBP12.2bln (vs 2.2bln prior)
  • Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) ex public sector banks is 99.4% of GDP, an increase from 97.7% in April 2024.