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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK FISCAL
Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) Ex-Financial intervention came in higher than expected at GBP3.1bln (vs 1.5bln consensus, 0.1bln OBR forecast, 13.5bln revised prior).
- The increase in PSNB ex on monthly basis was driven by central government net borrowing significantly exceeding OBR expectations at GBP16.5bln in July (vs 11.3bln OBR forecast, 13.7bln prior).
- Looking within central government net borrowing, in July expenditure was higher than expected, whilst receipts were a touch lower than expected by the OBR.
- The disappointment in receipts was due to self-assessment income tax coming in softer than expected at GBP12.9bln (vs 13.6bln expected). However, it may be that some late receipts are seen in August data.
- VAT current receipts on the other hand, exceeded the OBR forecast at GBP16.8bln (vs 14.3bln forecast), in cash terms it also came above expectations at GBP18.6bln (vs 17.6bln OBR forecast).
- Meanwhile looking at expenditure, central government net investment which includes the Treasury's quarterly Asset Purchase Facility payments in July, was higher than expected at GBP17.2bln (vs 15.8bln expected by the OBR, 6.4bln prior) - this was in part due to a larger than expected APF payments at GBP12.2bln (vs 11.7bln expected).
- In addition, consumption expenditure on goods and services printed above OBR expectations at GBP35.7bln (OBR expectation was 34.5bln).
- The July data takes the PSNB ex public sector banks to GBP51.4bln year-to-date, remaining above the cumulative year-to-date OBR forecast of 46.6bln, with year-to-date expenditure continuing to run above the OBR forecasts at GBP405.2bln (vs 396bln forecast), whilst receipts are broadly in line.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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