UK Jobless Rate Edges Up; Redundancies At Record Level

JUL-SEP LFS JOBLESS RATE 4.8% VS 4.5%

JUL-SEP AVG TOTAL EARNINGS +1.3% VS +0.1% PRIOR

JUL-SEP AVG EARNINGS EX-BONUS +1.9% VS +0.9% PRIOR

OCT CLAIMANT COUNT down 29,800 to 2,633,700

The UK's jobless rate edged up further in Sep to 4.8% which is the highest level since Jun-Aug 2016, up from 4.5% recorded previously and coming in line with market forecasts. The employment rate ticked down to 75.3% in Sep, while the inactivity rate remained almost unchanged at 20.9%. More up-to-date PAYE data showed another decline of payrolled employees. In Oct 33,000 fewer people were in payrolled employment compared to September, leading to 782,000 fewer people since March 2020. The LFS survey showed that redundancies increased in Sep, reaching a record high of 314,000, also a record increase of 181,000 on the quarter. Vacancies ticked up as well by 146,000 on the quarter in Oct, however they remain below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, avg actual hours worked rose to 28.5 in Sep, up from 27.3 in Aug but it remains below Feb's pre-crisis level. The claimant count rate ticked down marginally by 0.1% to 7.3% in Oct.