Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Opinion polling in the first week of the general election campaign has shown very little change, with the main opposition centre-left Labour party on course to secure a substantial majority in the House of Commons. Labour's highest polling score over the past seven days came in at 47%, with its lowest at 40%. This compares to PM Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservatives, whose highest support was recorded at 28% and its lowest at 19%, with the party's largest gap behind Labour at 27% and the lowest at 12%.
- Using data from the poll with the narrowest gap (JL Partners, 24-25 May), Electoral Calculus still shows that if reflected in the final election results Labour would hold a 132-seat majority in the House of Commons.
- The first head-to-head debate between Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer comes next Tuesday, 4 June, to be hosted by ITV at 2100BST (1600ET, 2200CET).
- Both Labour and the Conservatives have laid out similar packages with regards to taxation, with each party ruling out the prospect of increasing VAT while also committing to the freezing of income tax bands at current levels until 2028 at the earliest (a so-called 'stealth tax' that sees more workers moving into higher tax brackets as wages rise, filling Treasury coffers, without raising the rate of taxation).
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, %
Source: Techne, YouGov, BMG, More in Common, YouGov, Lord Ashcroft, Redfield and Wilton, Survation, Savanta, JL Partners, Deltapoll, Opinium, We Think, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.