UK Preliminary Data Forecasts: August Inflation Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - July extended the pause in the upward ascent in prices

witnessed since the UK's vote last year to leave the European Union. CPI

inflation and core inflation both held firm at 2.6% and 2.4%.   

     The driving force behind the July outturn was a fall in fuel prices, down

1.3% between June and July, but offset by upward pressure from other categories

like food and household goods. 

     In August, fuel prices will have the opposite effect having increased some

1.6% between July and August. With pump prices down 1.4% during the same period

a year ago, it is certain that this category will push both CPI and RPI higher. 

     Supplementing this, most suspect the pass through from the weaker currency

still has legs and could translate to higher prices as the cost of imported

materials remains elevated.    

     A rise in CPI Inflation seems a dead cert with every single analyst polled

in an MNI survey expecting the rate to push higher, having held firm for the

last two months.

     The MNI median points to a 0.1pp rise in CPI to 2.8%, just 0.1pp shy of

May's 5-year high. Core inflation is expected to rise a percentage point to 2.5%

while RPI is expected to climb another 0.2pp higher to 3.8%.      

------------------------------------------------------------

                       Aug     Aug       Aug     Aug     Aug

                       CPI     CPI  Core CPI     RPI     RPI

                     % MoM   % YoY     % YoY   % MoM   % YoY

Date Out            12-Sep  12-Sep    12-Sep  12-Sep  12-Sep

Median                 0.5     2.8       2.5     0.6     3.8

Forecast High          0.5     2.8       2.6     0.6     3.9

Forecast Low           0.4     2.7       2.4     0.4     3.6

Standard Deviation     0.1     0.1       0.1     0.1     0.1

Count                    6      11         5       4       5

Prior                 -0.1     2.6       2.4     0.2     3.6

ABN Amro               N/A     2.7       N/A     N/A     N/A

Berenberg              N/A     2.8       2.5     N/A     N/A

Commerzbank            0.4     2.7       N/A     N/A     N/A

HSBC                   0.5     2.8       2.6     N/A     N/A

Investec               0.5     2.8       2.5     0.6     3.8

Nomura                 0.4     2.7       N/A     0.6     3.8

Oxford Economics       0.5     2.8       N/A     0.4     3.6

RBC                    0.5     2.8       N/A     0.6     3.8

Scotia                 N/A     2.8       N/A     N/A     3.9

Standard Chartered     N/A     2.7       2.5     N/A     N/A

UniCredit              N/A     2.7       2.4     N/A     N/A

     The survey will be updated Sept 11.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]