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UK: Rising Savings Offer Limited Support For Future Spending (1/2)

UK
  • UK household savings are rising as a result of sustained real wage growth and more attractive deposit rates, with the savings ratio hitting 11.1% in Q124.
  • Apart from the extraordinary surge in savings during Covid (driven by the collapse in consumption and introduction of income-protection policies), in the last 25 years the ratio has exceeded 10% only briefly in 2009-2010 and Q415.
  • Before the GFC savings were compressed alongside the credit boom, while in the aftermath savings temporarily surged as deleveraging intensified, but then pushed lower as ultra-loose monetary policy re-inflated demand and disincentivised term saving.
  • The recent rise in savings is atypical. Real wages have risen steadily since mid-2023 on the back of a tight labour market and rapid disinflation after CPI peaked in Q422. This accounts for the rise in gross disposable income over this period.
  • In addition, while households were drawing down savings during the ZIRP era, recent monetary tightening has now motivated a shift away from cash on hand (currency, notes and sight deposits) to term saving (particularly tax-efficient ISAs)

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