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Unanimous Copom Decision Should Help Stabilise Domestic Asset Prices

BRAZIL
  • Last night’s unanimous decision by the Copom to keep the Selic unchanged at 10.50% should help to stabilise domestic asset prices. To recap, the more hawkish statement suggested that rate cuts won’t resume until inflation is on a path to return to the 3% target over the policy horizon and inflation expectations are anchored. For USDBRL, recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at 5.2869, the Apr 16 high, opening 5.5296, the Nov 17 2022 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 5.3141, the 20-day EMA.
  • In other news, President Lula said at the inauguration ceremony of Petrobras CEO, Magda Chambriard, yesterday that he wants the company to be profitable, in an effort to ease investor concerns over government interference. Meanwhile, Chambriard pledged to deliver robust results, adding that Petrobras will develop new offshore oil regions to help pay for the energy transition, and also focus on refining, petrochemicals and fertilizer production. She also ruled out new changes to the board, saying that the board is already defined.
  • On the data front, May tax collections data could be published later today. Next week, focus will turn to the Copom minutes, due to be published on Tuesday.

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